Despite 12 places and 27 points separating Borussia Dortmund and Mainz in the Bundesliga, Niko Kovac said his team's upcoming clash was far from a foregone conclusion. 

Dortmund sit second in the top-flight after a fine recent run of form and are within six points of leaders Bayern Munich ahead of welcoming Mainz to Westfalenstadion on Friday.

And according to the Opta supercomputer, BVB have a slight chance of overhauling Vincent Kompany's team at the summit to win their first top-flight title since 2011-12. 

Indeed, Dortmund finished top of the pile in just 2.6% of its season simulations, with Bayern romping to a 35th Bundesliga crown in a whopping 97.4% of those scenarios. 

However, BVB are still in with a chance of another trophy after reaching the last 16 of the Champions League, with a two-legged tie against Atalanta to come later this month. 

The Bundesliga giants will face RB Leipzig and Bayern either side of their European commitments, and Kovac acknowledged the importance of his team's upcoming fixtures. 

"We now have five important matches in two weeks," Kovac said. "Mainz is the most important game for me because a win will help us to prepare for the upcoming games."

But Dortmund take on a Mainz side who have been revitalised under Urs Fischer since the 59-year-old replaced Bo Henriksen at the end of last year. 

Mainz have already picked up 13 points in six Bundesliga games in 2026, climbing to 14th in the table after sitting at the bottom of the table with eight points after 15 games. 

Only Dortmund (16) and Hoffenheim (15) have collected more points than Mainz (13, level with Bayern and Stuttgart) in the Bundesliga this year.

In addition, Fischer has picked up 15 points in his first eight Bundesliga games with Mainz. Only Jurgen Klopp in 2004-05 previously picked up at least as many points in his first eight top-flight matches with the club.

"I'm delighted that he's back in the Bundesliga. He did a great job in Berlin," Kovac said of Fischer. "You can see that he's now demonstrating those qualities at Mainz too.

"Mainz are fighting for survival. They put in good performances in Munich and Leipzig. This is not a walkover, this is a very well-prepared team."

Kovac also confirmed that Marcel Sabitzer and Karim Adeyemi are in line for a return to the squad after missing their 2-1 win over Wolfsburg last time out. 

Yan Couto could also be back in contention after recovering from illness, but Emre Can and Filippo Mane are still out with injuries, while Nico Schlotterbeck is suspended. 

"I am convinced that we have enough quality to win the game," Kovac added. 

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Borussia Dortmund – Serhou Guirassy

Serhou Guirassy has scored three goals in his last two league games and has four Bundesliga goals in 2026, just one goal fewer than he managed before the winter break (five).

He has netted 30 goals in his first 50 top-flight appearances for Dortmund – only Erling Haaland (50) and Timo Konietzka (41) have scored more for the club in their first 50 Bundesliga outings. 

Mainz – Nadiem Amiri

Mainz's in-form Nadiem Amiri has scored in five consecutive Bundesliga matches for the first time. Scoring in six consecutive appearances would equal the club record in a single top-flight season, which Mohamed Zidan achieved in 2012.

With nine goals, Amiri has set a new personal best within a single league season. In 2026, he is the joint-top goalscorer in the top-flight with six goals, alongside Andrej Kramaric.

MATCH PREDICTION: BORUSSIA DORTMUND WIN

Dortmund have won their last two Bundesliga matches against Mainz, having been winless in their previous four encounters.

BVB are also unbeaten in their last five home league games against Mainz (W2 D3), with their last home defeat against them coming in June 2020 (0-2).

Kovac's side are also on a fine run of form. They have recorded 48 points after 21 Bundesliga games, their best tally at this stage for seven years (50 points in 2018-19).

Only in 2010-11 (51) and 2018-19 (50) have the team had more points after 21 Bundesliga matches than they do currently (48, same as 2015-16).

Dortmund are also unbeaten in their last 14 Bundesliga matches (W10 D4), going 1-0 up in all of them – 15 consecutive Bundesliga games with a 1-0 lead would equal the club's all-time league record.

They have won their last five Bundesliga matches, which equals their longest winning run under Kovac. Dortmund last had more consecutive league wins at the beginning of 2023 under Edin Terzic (eight).

The odds seem stacked against Mainz, but they have won their last three Bundesliga games in a row, which is their longest winning streak since between February and March 2025 (four under Henriksen). 

OPTA WIN PROBABILITY

Borussia Dortmund – 59.3%

Draw – 20.5%

Mainz – 20.2%