AFCON 2025: What Morocco Need to Qualify as Group A Reaches Breaking Point

The final round of group-stage matches at the TotalEnergies CAF Africa Cup of Nations Morocco 2025 begins on Monday, and while drama is expected across the tournament, all eyes in the host nation are firmly fixed on Morocco and what they need to secure qualification.

Morocco’s Qualification Scenario — Simple but Not Sealed

Morocco enter the final Group A matchday top of the group with four points, but qualification is not yet guaranteed. With Mali and Zambia both on two points and Comoros still mathematically alive, the group remains wide open.

Here’s what Morocco need to qualify for the Round of 16:

- Win vs Zambia → Morocco qualify automatically as group winners

- Draw vs Zambia → Morocco qualify automatically for the knockout stage

- Loss vs Zambia → Morocco could still qualify, but would depend on the result of Mali vs Comoros and goal difference

In short, Morocco control their destiny. Avoiding defeat is enough to reach the last 16 — but a win would remove all doubt and keep momentum firmly on the hosts’ side.

Why the Stakes Are High for the Hosts

As tournament hosts, Morocco have handled the pressure well so far, taking four points from their opening two matches. However, a slip in the final game could turn a comfortable position into a nervous wait for third-place qualification scenarios.

A victory would not only secure progression, but also:

- Confirm Morocco as Group A winners

- Deliver a potentially more favorable knockout matchup

- Maintain confidence and rhythm heading into the elimination rounds

Group A on a Knife’s Edge

While Morocco face Zambia, Mali vs Comoros will be played simultaneously — a result that could dramatically reshape the table if Morocco stumble. With goal difference tight across the group, even a single goal could swing qualification.

AFCON Drama Still Guaranteed

Across the tournament, only three teams — Egypt, Nigeria and Algeria — have already booked Round of 16 places. Everyone else, including Morocco, must finish the job.

If the first two matchdays proved anything, it’s that AFCON never follows a script. For Morocco, the equation is clear: avoid defeat and the journey continues — but anything less than full focus could invite unnecessary chaos on a decisive night.