When Dominik Szoboszlai's stunning free-kick nestled into the back of the net on Sunday, Arsenal may have felt as though one hand was already on the Premier League crown.

However, Anfield descended into chaos late on as Erling Haaland's 93rd-minute penalty sealed a huge win for Manchester City over Liverpool in the race for the title. 

Arsenal had seen a potential nine-point lead at the summit reduced to six, and that could be as little as three points before they travel to face Brentford on Thursday.

Man City take on Fulham 24 hours earlier and will be keen to put the pressure on Arsenal, who will be looking nervously over their shoulders after their recent near-misses.

Arsenal make the trip across the capital on the back of a 3-0 win over Sunderland last time out, as a double off the bench from Viktor Gyokeres helped them to a valuable home victory.

However, Mikel Arteta's side take on another surprise package in Brentford, whose fine debut season under Keith Andrews has them dreaming of a place in Europe next season.

The Bees were on the right end of a five-goal thriller against Newcastle United, and will be hoping to provide a sting in the tail that could throw the title race wide open.

Here, we delve into the key Opta insights to see which way this intriguing contest could go. 

What's expected?

Arsenal still remain the huge favourites to win their first Premier League title since 2003-04, emerging victorious in 90.5% of the Opta supercomputers season simulations.

Arteta remains wary of the threat City pose, but his team are expected to keep Guardiola's men at a distance with a victory at Gtech Community Stadium. 

The Gunners are assigned a 55.6% win probability, while Brentford's chances of victory are rated at just 22.3%. The likelihood of a draw is rated slightly lower at 22.1%. 

That could be because, since losing their first Premier League away game 2-0 against Brentford in 2021, Arsenal have won their last three by an aggregate score of 7-1.

Indeed, that was Brentford's first-ever top-flight win in their first game in the competition five years ago. But they are now winless in their last eight against the Gunners (D2 L6). 

That part of Arteta's reign was a particular low point, with Arsenal beaten by a newly promoted side in their opening league match of the season for the first time since 1976-77 against Bristol City at Highbury (W5 D2 in between).

Can Brentford bounce back at home?

Having lost seven of their first eight Premier League away games this season (W1), Brentford have now won four of their last five on the road (L1), but they return to familiar territory this Thursday. 

A huge part of Brentford's successful season to date has been their impressive form at Gtech Community Stadium, with the Bees level on points with reigning champions Liverpool after 25 games of their campaign. 

Only Aston Villa, Manchester United (both eight), Man City (nine) and Arsenal (10) have more home wins in the league this season than the Bees (seven). 

However, Andrews' side lost 2-0 against Nottingham Forest in their last home league game, ending a seven-game unbeaten run at the Gtech Stadium.

Since the start of last season, they have only lost consecutive home league games twice, the first time of which was a 2-0 defeat to Forest followed by a loss to Arsenal.

And history could repeat itself, given Brentford have won just one of their last 11 home London derbies in the Premier League (D6 L4).

Indeed, they are winless in their last seven such matches against teams from the capital since a 2-1 win over Crystal Palace in August 2024, but they could look to draw on their recent form away from home in their quest to stun Arsenal. 

After beating Newcastle on Saturday, Brentford have now won four of their last five on the road (L1), having lost seven of their first eight top-flight away games this season (W1). 

The result also saw them win just their second game in which they have conceded first (L7), with both of those victories coming against Newcastle (also 3-1 in November).

But this midweek outing may not hold great omens for Brentford. This is just their fourth Premier League game played on a Thursday – they lost 2-0 at Spurs in December 2021, beat Forest 2-0 in May 2025 and drew 0-0 with Spurs last month.

Saka's capital gains

Over the years, a debate has raged on as to who is the biggest team in the capital, with Chelsea, Tottenham and Arsenal among the big contenders for that accolade. 

Though Chelsea boast the most trophies in the debate, there is no denying that Arsenal have dominated fixtures against fellow teams from London in recent years. 

Indeed, the Gunners have lost just one of their last 23 Premier League London derbies (W17 D5), while since the start of 2022-23 they have lost just one of their 20 away games against fellow London sides (W14 D5).

Arsenal will have confidence of keeping themselves clear of the chasing pack, given Arteta's excellent record in all-London fixtures.

The Spaniard has won 41 of his 67 Premier League London derbies as manager, the best win rate (61%) of anyone to take charge of at least 20.

Overall, only former Arsenal boss Arsene Wenger (106 from 194 games) and Jose Mourinho (42/70) have won more London derbies than Arteta. 

But away from games against teams in the capital, Arsenal have been the standout performers this season. Their win over Sunderland made it back-to-back triumphs after their shock defeat to Man United, with progression to the EFL Cup final also sandwiched in between. 

Their 1-0 victory over Chelsea in the second leg came on a Tuesday, and that could be a good omen for Arsenal. They are unbeaten in their last 12 midweek Premier League games (W9 D3). However, they're without a win or a goal (D1 L2) in any of their last three, specifically on Thursdays.

And a player who has often thrived in those fixtures is Bukayo Saka, who has been involved in 35 goals in 63 Premier League London derbies (17 goals, 18 assists). 

It is the third most of any Arsenal player after Thierry Henry (55) and Dennis Bergkamp (38), but a hip injury sustained against Leeds United last month looks set to rule him out from adding to that tally this time around. 

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Brentford – Igor Thiago

Igor Thiago scored his sixth penalty goal in the Premier League this season against Newcastle last time out. Indeed, only Kylian Mbappe (eight) and Nadiem Amiri (seven) have netted more across Europe's top five leagues this season.

In addition, the Brazilian has scored nine goals in his last 10 Premier League home games, netting four braces in that run.

Only Manchester City's Erling Haaland (five) has scored multiple goals in more different home matches this term.

Arsenal – Viktor Gyokeres

Since the turn of the year, Gyokeres (six) has scored more goals across all competitions than any other Premier League player.

The Sweden international has also scored in back-to-back games for the first time in his Arsenal career following his big-money move from Sporting CP.

Six of his eight Premier League goals this season have come against newly promoted sides, though, so Arteta will be hoping his forward changes that track.