Pep Guardiola believes Manchester City have just a 1% chance of overcoming a 3-2 first-leg deficit to eliminate Real Madrid from the Champions League on Wednesday.

City go to the Santiago Bernabeu for the second leg of their knockout-stage play-off tie this week, on the heels of a confidence-boosting 4-0 rout of Newcastle United. 

But they have their work cut out in the Spanish capital, having squandered 1-0 and 2-1 leads before losing 3-2 in last week's home leg, with Jude Bellingham taking advantage of a defensive mix-up to net a last-minute winner for the holders.

It is the fifth time City have lost the first leg of a Champions League knockout tie, and they went on to be eliminated on each of the four previous occasions.

Madrid, meanwhile, have now opened 40 European knockout ties with a first-leg victory, progressing from 37 of the previous 39.

They have only squandered a first-leg lead against Odense Boldklub in the 1994-95 UEFA Cup and Ajax in the 2018-19 edition of the Champions League.

"The margin to win in Bernabeu in that position, everybody knows that if you ask before the game, the percentage to go through, I don't know, we arrive at 1%, or I don't know what," Guardiola said.

"It will be minimal, but as much as you have a chance, we will try, that's for sure, you know? 

"The chance is minor because the result was not good. Five minutes before, with 2-1, it would be different.

"But with 2-3, the chance is less, but as much as you have a chance, we are going to take it, and we'll see what happens."

The Opta supercomputer assigns City a 28.6% chance of victory in 90 minutes at the Bernabeu, but just a 21.8% chance of reaching the last 16.

City's 57 goals conceded in all competitions this season are three more than they shipped in 2023-24, having played 20 games fewer. 

Only in 2016-17 (60) have they conceded more in a single campaign under Guardiola, in his first season in charge.

Guardiola believes the setbacks City have faced have also had a mental impact, saying: "Listen, there are many, many games that we didn't play the level we play, and at the end, we lost it.

"It was not just the three points, it's how it is affecting our minds for the next game. It happened a lot of times. This season, the reality is that we have been miles, miles away."